The Central Bank Governor of Nigerian (CBN), Mr. Godwin Emefiele, has declared that barring any other circumstances, Nigeria would be out of recession before the end of 2017.
Emefiele, while delivering a lecture ‘The Dilemma of Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Management in a Recession: Potential Options for Nigeria,’ at the University of Nigeria, Nsukka at the weekend said that with all the interventions the federal government, the CBN and other authorities are putting together, the country would be out of recession before the end of 2017. He said: “In January 2017, inflation was 18.8 percent, it is now down to 16.24percent.
Last quarter, which was fourth quarter of 2016, growth was negative 1.72 percent. First quarter of 2017, growth had improved to negative 1.52 percent. “What that means is that we see an improvement in growth by about 1.2 percent. If we see another 1.2 growth in the second quarter we are out of recession,” he said.
He noted that with the federal government support for local farmers and private sector investments in agriculture, “I believe that barring any other shock the prices of foodstuff in the markets will come down.” Emefiele expressed regret that the country missed the opportunity of being a great economy when it abandoned agriculture which was the backbone of the nation’s economy in the 1960s and 1970s for oil.
“In those good days the South East and South South were known for palm oil, the South West for cocoa and the North for groundnut; but with the advent of oil, we abandoned agriculture. “Countries like Netherland is oil producing country but also produces agricultural products in large quantities.
Majority of fish we consume in this country is from the Netherland,” he said. He noted that the idea of importing all that the country consumes landed the Nigeria into recession. “How do we justify the importation of items like apple, cucumber and eggs from South Africa, beef from Zambia and toothpicks from China? “These are items we can locally produce and used money in importing these items to beef up local industries that will in turn create employments for our youths. “We must take cognizance of the fact that imports are leakages to every economy,” he said.
The CBN governor said the apex bank was aware of the pains Nigerians are going through as a result of the economic recession and said this is the opportunity needed to look inward to diversify the economy and come of the recession stronger. “This recession provide opportunity for us to look inward, diversify the economy, produce locally and create employments for our youths. “We must diversify our economy; go back to agriculture as we cannot survive as a people by importing everything.
“We must export more and import few items in other to make our economy strong and increase our foreign exchange earnings,” he said. The Vice-Chancellor of University of Nigerian, Nsukka, Prof. Benjamin Ozumba, expressed appreciation for the governor of the apex bank for accepting the invitation to deliver the lecture and described him as one of the best alumni of the university.
Ozumba said the importance of economics in any county could not be over-emphasis since the decision of economists determines the progress or failure of any country. “Economists play vital roles in any country as they determine what the economy of any country will look like. “I commend the Department of Economics for organizing this home coming which attracted the CBN governor who is an alumnus of the department,” he said.
