Nigeria’s 2023 Elections, while fraught with a myriad of risks, can break
new ground in transparency and credibility if the Government delivers on
its commitment to secure the electoral process.
This is the summation of an
election security risk assessment conducted by the Office for Strategic
Preparedness and Resilience (OSPRE) which is also known as the National
Early Warning Centre of Nigeria.
The report released last week entitled “Ballots and Battlegrounds: 2023
Election Security Risks as Nigeria Decides” is an assessment of threats to
the credible conduct of this weekend’s polls based on crime reporting,
incident mapping, historical research, publicly available information,
open-source intelligence and ancillary data.
According to the Director General of OSPRE, Mr. Chris Ngwodo, the report
“is the product of a unique collaboration between state actors and civil
society organizations who are united by the aim of improving the security
and integrity of our electoral process and our democratic institutions.”
The report highlights the use of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System
(BVAS) by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) as a
development that could have a transformative impact on election
management.
“The deployment of digital tools significantly narrows the spectrum of
options available to bad actors who seek to subvert the electoral process,”
the report said. Such actors may resort to voter suppression through campaigns of intimidation and overt violence aimed at reducing voter
turnout; attacks on INEC officials and attempts to steal, clone or destroy
BVAS devices; vote buying; subornment of INEC staff and security agents
with the aim of perverting electoral outcomes and attempts to hack the
online transmission of results.
Despite the likely use of these tactics by criminal elements, a high turnout
of voters under conditions of adequate security as well as cybersecurity
measures will guarantee the integrity of the process.
The report described the recent spate of attacks on INEC facilities and
personnel as “unprecedented” and called on the Government to treat such
attacks as “acts of subversion under the Terrorism Prevention and
Prohibition Act of 2022.” It also recommended that “the expeditious
investigation and prosecution of electoral crimes should be a top priority
for law enforcement and security agencies.”
The report concludes that ending the culture of political violence demands
the promotion of strong disincentives – the reduction of the premium
placed on public office by modulating the rewards and privileges associated
with power and stridently punishing electoral crimes.
ABOUT NATIONAL EARLY WARNING CENTRE AND RESPONSE MECHANISM
The National Centre for the Coordination of Early Warning and Response
Mechanism was established in June 2022 with the signing of Executive Order
12 by President Muhammadu Buhari pursuant to Article 58 of the Treaty of the
Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and Article 16 of the
1999 Protocol on the Mechanism relating to Conflict Prevention, Management,
Resolution, Peacekeeping and Security. The centre is mandated to address
threats to human security and to build the preparedness and resilience of
institutions and communities.
Nike Babalola
Head, Communications & Public Relations
OSPRE
