By Olugbenga Olaoye, Ph.D.
Nigeria continues to witness a drama with stakes that extend far beyond boardrooms and loading bays. At center stage is the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, the $19 billion, single-train behemoth designed to remake Africa’s refining map, and on the other side are organized labour groups, notably PENGASSAN and NUPENG, who have mobilised around issues of jobs, access, and operational practice. Their confrontation is not merely an industrial dispute; it is a stress test of Nigeria’s energy security, its industrial ambitions, and its image to the world.
To understand why this matters, it helps to borrow a storytelling device. The documentary-series “The Men Who Built America”profiles titanic industrialists; Carnegie, Rockefeller, Vanderbilt, men whose enterprises shaped national economies. Dangote is a modern echo of that breed: an entrepreneur who moved beyond extraction to invest in industrial infrastructure at scale. His refinery’s promise is vast. But so are the risks when industry, labour, and state fail to find durable arrangements. The question now is: Will Nigeria leverage this moment to anchor its energy future, or will it squander an opportunity that global observers are watching closely?
The Anatomy of the Conflict
Since commissioning, the Dangote refinery has changed the supply dynamics in Nigeria. For decades the country endured the paradox of exporting crude while importing refined fuels. The refinery promised to end that contradiction by supplying the domestic market and exporting to the region. Its introduction has compressed margins for import-dependent depot owners and reshaped logistics and pricing across the value chain.
That structural shift unsettled stakeholders used to the rhythms of importation, but the most combustible element in the recent crisis has been labour. PENGASSAN (the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association) and NUPENG (National Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers) represent upstream and downstream workers who fear displacement, precarious terms for contracted drivers, and the concentration of bargaining power. Issues have ranged from the unionisation of refinery tanker drivers and conditions of employment to concerns about access and pricing strategies that appear to marginalise traditional depot owners and transport contractors.The recent lay-off of 800 refinery workers due to allegations of sabotage by the refinery management, sparked off what would have resulted to monumental loss of revenue to the Nigerian economy and caused untold hardship to Nigerians.
When unions threaten strikes, work stoppages or disrupt logistics, the immediate casualty is energy security: fuel availability, distribution continuity, and the confidence of consumers and businesses. But the ripple effects are broader: investor sentiment sours, regional trading partners observe supply politics with caution, and Nigeria’s reputation for predictable, business-friendly operations is put on the line.
Why Energy Security Is Not Just About Barrels
Energy security is commonly misread as a mere pipeline of barrels. It is far more. True energy security is a function of reliable supply, resilient logistics, predictable pricing, and robust institutions to manage disputes and transitions. The refinery enhances one leg of that quadrangle, domestic refining capacity,but it introduces new dependencies: on the company’s internal labour policies, on the integrity of its distribution agreements, and on government’s ability to regulate and arbitrate fairly.
A strike at a refinery or along the transport chain can produce shortages within days. In a system where alternative refining capacity is limited and imports remain a fallback option dependent on foreign exchange and global price dynamics, interruptions become national crises. The public’s experiencelong queues, rationing, and uncertainty erodes trust. For foreign investors, such episodes raise practical concerns about operational continuity and political risk. For neighboringcountries counting on Nigerian refined products, instability can drive them to diversify supplies elsewhere.
Thus, the stakes are twofold: first, the immediate risk of supply disruption; second, the long-term risk to confidence, that Nigeria cannot manage the transition from import dependency to a domestically anchored refining economy without social and institutional conflict.
Dangote in the Frame: Industrialist or Monopolist?
The image of Dangote as a modern industrial titan is apt: the refinery is a transformational project with regional significance. In “The Men Who Built America”, industry leaders fundamentally reshaped national capacity and employment; they created economies of scale that made products cheaper and more widely available. Dangote’s refinery, if it performs as intended, could finally provide Nigeria with the refining backbone it sorely needs, lower dependence on imports, and create downstream industrial opportunities, petrochemicals, logistics, and value-add manufacturing.
But scale begets suspicion. Rapid market dominance raises legitimate questions about fair access, pricing transparency, and the risk of unilateral market control. These concerns are not purely academic. When a single entity becomes the principal source of refined products, the dynamics of bargaining, price-setting, and market access change. Labour unions worry about job security and bargaining leverage; independent marketers and depot owners worry about being squeezed out; regulators worry about preserving competition.
The correct response is not to demonize the enterprise. It is to manage the systemic effects of concentration through proactive governance: transparent pricing rules, non-discriminatory access arrangements for marketers, and clear standards for labourrelations and contracting.
Labour’s Legitimate Grievances and Where They Fall Short
PENGASSAN’s concerns are legitimate in several respects. Workers deserve fair wages, safe working conditions, and the right to union representation. Contracted drivers and service providers must not be reduced to precarious workforces with little bargaining power. Furthermore, when a new industrial player alters the value chain, policies must be in place to ensure that local communities and workers share in the economic gains.
Nevertheless, there is a risk that defensive protectionism,seeking to preserve margins and rent structures born of import dependency will mask a failure to adapt. Labour organisationsthat adopt a posture of intransigence risk prolonging disruptions and undermining opportunities for stable employment and skills development that a modern refinery can generate. The best outcome for workers is not to freeze the status quo but to secure a share of the new value created through constructive negotiation: localized hiring quotas, training and upskillingprograms, permanently employed logistics roles, and decent contract terms for drivers and technicians.
The Government’s Pivotal Role
If industry and labour are the principal actors, government is the stage manager. The federal government, through regulators (NMDPRA), labour and ministries must be more than an onlooker. It must actively shape the framework that makes this transition equitable, competitive, and stable.
Three policy actions are necessary:
1. Transparent Regulation of Access and Pricing: Regulators should mandate transparent, non-discriminatory mechanisms for marketers to access refined products at depot level. Pricing frameworks that are predictable, publicly auditable, and linked to verifiable cost elements would reduce suspicion of predatory practices.
2. Structured Labour Transition Programs: Government should underwrite training programs and incentives for Dangoteand other large operators to absorb and upskill local labour. Conditional tax incentives, training grants, and placement programs can align corporate expansion with broad-based employment gains.
3. Clear Arbitration and Continuity Mechanisms: Fast-track dispute-resolution processes and continuity protocols for essential services (including fuel distribution) are necessary to prevent stoppages from spiralling into national crises. Contingency plans for emergency imports, stocked strategic reserves, and legal frameworks that balance strike rights with national security considerations are essential.
Image on the Global Stage
Every episode in this quarrel is a vignette in the international narrative about Nigeria. The world is watching whether the country can convert its natural resource wealth into durable industrial capability. A refinery of Dangote’s scale is a headline-grabber, it signals ambition. But headlines about strikes, blockades, and supply interruptions feed a different narrative: that governance is weak, labour relations are adversarial, and investors face operational risk.
For regional partners and global investors, reliability is king. If Nigeria can demonstrate the ability to manage rapid industrial expansion through transparent regulation, social inclusion, and predictable labour relations, it will convert skepticism into confidence. The alternative is reputational drag, a slower flow of capital into energy and industrial projects and missed opportunities to anchor manufacturing clusters that depend onstable refined-product supply.
The Men Who Built a Modern Nigeria
Returning to The Men Who Built America is instructive because the documentary shows how audacious private enterprise can catalyse national growth, but also how public rules and institutions ultimately determine whether industrial giants become engines of inclusive development or nodes of exclusion. Dangote is the modern industrialist that Nigeria needs: an investor who not only builds capacity but partners with government and labour to ensure the gains are broad-based.
What the documentary also teaches is that growth driven by a few requires systemic governance. The great industrialists of the past were followed by regulatory innovations: antitrust laws, labour protections, corporate governance norms. Nigeria’s moment requires comparable institutional creativity: forward-looking industrial policy, strong competition oversight, and a social contract that ensures workers and communities benefit.
Some Practical Recommendations
1. Continuous Tripartite Dialogue: Convene a mediated forum (Dangote management, PENGASSAN/NUPENG, federal regulators) to agree on short-term measures preventing supply disruption and a roadmap for long-term settlement. Kudos must go to the Federal Government of Nigeria for moving with speed in this direction. This conversation must be sustained as well asensure that all parties adhere to the terms of the milestones and agreements reached.
2. Access & Pricing Code: Publish a code of conduct for depot allocations and ex-depot pricing with independent audit rights. Make allocation rules and freight subsidies (if any) transparent.
3. Safety Net for the Sector: Establish a contingency supply mechanism, strategic fuel reserves and emergency import protocols to smooth supply shocks while disputes are resolved.
4. Regional Cooperation: Use the refinery’s export potential to strengthen regional supply deals that diversify markets and create interdependence that discourages disruption.
5. Public Communication Strategy: Communicate progress and protections clearly to the public to manage expectations and reduce panic-driven behaviour at pumps.
Conclusion – From Confrontation to Construction
Nigeria stands at a pivot point. The Dangote refinery offers a tangible chance to end a long-standing economic paradox and catalyse industrial development. But infrastructure without institutions is fragile. The confrontation with PENGASSAN is a loud reminder that industrial scale must be matched by social contracts and governance frameworks.
If Nigeria can transform this moment from conflict to construction, if industry invests in people and transparency, if unions secure fair terms while embracing change, and if government provides predictable rules and arbitration, the payoff will be enormous: improved energy security, new jobs, stronger regional influence, and an enviable global signal that the country can industrialize at scale and manage the social consequences. If not, the story will be one of promise deferred: a refinery that should have been the cornerstone of national transformation reduced to another flashpoint in a cycle of scarcity, distrust, and reputational loss.
The men who built nations did not do so in isolation; they built institutions and were constrained and enabled by them. Nigeria needs more industrialists like Dangote, and more public institutions and labour partnerships that can harness that ambition for the common good. Again, the cheese has moved. The maze is open. It is time for all actors to pick up the map and walk deliberately toward a future that works for everyone.
Olugbenga Olaoye is a seasoned professional with extensive experience in the oil and gas industry. He has a PhD in Economics from Covenant University, specializing in energy economics and holds a master’s degree in public service from the Clinton School of Public Service, USA and an Executive MBA from the Lagos Business School. He writes from Fort Worth, Texas. USA. Email: gbengausedu@gmail.com
